Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Free newspaper trends 2006

I live in Seoul in South Korea, and if there ever was a newspaper market saturated with free dailies it is this city. Not only do we have Metro, but also AM7, Focus and Zoom, all of them distributed in the subway as well as in the streets. I have also seen free-of-charge business and sports papers appearing in the streets here. The past year, free papers have entered the mainstream in several countries. Expansion continues. Some examples:

• The free paper 20 Minutos has surpassed El Pais as the largest Spanish paper. 20 Minutos has 2.298.000 daily readers, whereas El Pais has 2.048.000. Following El Pais are two more free papers, Que! and Metro. Lagging behind in fifth place is the paid-for El Mundo.
• In Dublin, Ireland, Metro started publishing its latest addition to the international chain on October 10, 2005. It is a joint venture between Metro International, Irish Times and Associated Newspapers (the latter is the publisher of London Metro). Metro now boasts 60 different editions globally.
• Swedish Bonnier group started the free daily 5min in Riga, Latvia, on August 22, 2005.
• Free-of-charge newspaper Kaupunkilehti Vartti, published by the Sanoma group, started publishing five editions Monday and Thursday, with a total print run of 460.000 copies. It is distributed by the Finnish post to homes in and around Helsinki.
• City AM started printing a free business daily in London September 5, 2005. Heading the company is Jens Thorpe, who recently jumped ship from a top position at Metro International.
• Swiss publishing group Ringier launched a new free Prague daily on 28 November 2005, called 24 Hodin (24 Hours). The paper is in berliner format and focus on local news, new technologies and sport. Ringier will eventually introduce the paper in Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Serbia.
• In Sweden, Metro continued to expand into several smaller cities all over the country, prompting local and regional dailies to defend their turf. Mid-December Metro added 17 new Swedish cities to its distribution network.
• Metro now claims to have 18,5 million daily readers worldwide.

Free daily newspapers will continue to pop up all over the world during 2006, to the horror of paid-for papers:

• In the US, the conservative religious billionaire Philip Anschutz, owner of San Fransisco Examiner, are setting up a chain of free newspapers. He has trademarked the Examiner name in over 60 US cities, and will start with Baltimore Examiner 2006. Twist: he delivers them to the home of the wealthy, shunning the subway commuters.
• The Norwegian publisher Schibstedt is expanding its 20 Minuten all over Germany, and is gearing up to gain readership during the 2006 Football World Cup.
• In Paris, Le Monde is contemplating starting a free business daily with a circulation of 200.000 copies.

The conclusion from these and other similar news, is that the migration of readers and advertisers towards the new free newspapers will continue during 2006. But the greatest effect on the industry as a whole is not that the paid-for newspapers share of the ad revenue will continue to shrink, but that the price level for every type of newspaper advertisement will go down. Added by internet sites with classifieds ads, like craigslist.com, there is no end in sight: newspapers have to get used to less advertising money. Starting your own free-of-charge daily as defence against new competition might mean more trouble for a traditional newspaper, cannibalizing both its reader market and advertising market, as well as making the idea of giving away a newspaper respectable. It is really a "Catch 22" for the old guard.
On the other hand, it is not at all certain that the new free dailies will earn money for their owners either. With the exception of Metro Stockholm, the paper I co-founded 1995, subsequent launches have proved to be much less profitable. Analysts following Metro International have declared 2005 a lost year for investors, and it is obvious that shareholders are losing patience with the company.
Swedish media group Bonniers are continuing to book heavy losses for their Stockholm "Metro-killer" City, in spite of good readership figures. Schipstedt is investing a lot of Norwegian kronor in the European 20 Minutes-venture, expanding in France, Spain and Switzerland, but it is unclear how long they will hold out. If the future looks shaky for the traditional newspaper industry, it is also uncertain for the newcomers.
In a longer perspective, however, the issue of free versus paid-for newspaper is only a discussion about different approaches to print media. And the big question is not at all this, but how the newspaper industry will be able to keep its appeal to readers in a world where internet, television, local networks, pda:s, mobile phones and ipods all blend together in a wireless broadband environment. The real challenge to the newspaper industry is how to stay relevant at all in a new media world.
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